Whitepaper uncertainty in life cycle inventory data. The international journal of life cycle assessment 2016, 21 10, 15291537. Role of uncertainty in streamlined life cycle assessment. Uncertainty analysis in the life cycle assessment of cassava. Inventory data and characterization factors in life cycle assessment lca contain considerable uncertainty. The earlier software prototype and beta version was developed in association with transportation engineers at morrison hershfield, and was funded by environment canada.
Integrating fuzzy multicriteria analysis and uncertainty. Output metrics employed for quantifying uncertainty. Sustainability and life cycle assessment is a wide field, and has grown from visionary concepts of brundtland and on a more narrow area, for lca setac. Simapro or ecochain software and the internationally recognized methods like recipe and ippc for global warming potential are used to translate the inventory data into environmental impacts. These wastes are produced in each phase of the product life cycle from raw material extraction to product retirement. Life cycle impact assessment lcia usually includes characterization, normalization, and weighting. However, the need to perform the steps from first principles is imperative, as this can serve as a guide for prospective life cycle assessment modelers in places where there is a scarcity of data to utilize, and thereafter validate. Cassava yield and applied amount of nitrogen fertilizer and steam are the factors that most affect the ped and gwp of cassava. Monte carlo simulation mcs has been widely utilized to characterize uncertainties in lca.
The goal of this research is identifying major sources of uncertainty of an environmentallysustainable urban drainage infrastructure design, based on hydrologic analysis and life cycle assessment. Methods for uncertainty propagation in life cycle assessment. We provide tools for life cycle assessment and supply guidance on how to. Were life cycle assessment lca experts and pioneers of sustainability roi, helping organizations integrate environmental, social, and economic sustainability into their business and manufacturing operations. A free software for everything you need in sustainability modeling.
It may thus foster a sound use of uncertainty assessment in lcas. But the last few years, software and data providers are freeing themselves from this trap. Quantitative uncertainty analysis of life cycle assessment. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making wellinformed decisions in comparative lca, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Characterizing uncertainties in life cycle assessment escholarship. The worlds leading, high performance, open source life cycle assessment software. Uncertainty analysis in lca concepts, tools, and practice. Uncertainty analysis is an important aspect in lca, and is usually performed using monte carlo sampling. A method for estimating the degree of uncertainty with. The athena pavement lca tool is an lcabased software package that makes life cycle assessment data easily accessible to roadway decisionmakers.
Recent developments in databases and software are enabling the routine inclusion of uncertainty assessment in lca, which enables a better evaluation of results from comparative assessments. Uncertainty assessment in lifecycle cost analysis decisions about buildingrelated investments typically involve a great deal of uncertainty about their costs and potential savings. Life cycle assessment lca calculates the environmental impact of a product over its entire life cycle. Analysing a proper management of the input uncertainty, taking into account suitable sampling and estimation techniques. Environmental footprinting is driven by the new iso14001 standard. Role of uncertainty in streamlined life cycle assessment exploring the case of petrochemical refineries and polymer manufacturing units by ashwin krishna murali a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree master of science approved may 2014 by the graduate supervisory committee. For example, soybean biodiesel produced in brazil and. Sep 24, 2015 learn how small business project managers can use software for project risk management to identify, analyze, respond to and control potential bottlenecks to a projectall while ensuring that all steps of the project life cycle are completed smoothly and ontime. These types may occur in the goal andscope definition, the inventory analysis and the impact assessment of an lca. The input parameters are varied at random, but restricted by the given uncertainty distributions. We conducted a life cycle assessment in accordance with the iso 1404014044 standards using data primarily from publicly available reports.
Life cycle sustainability assessment the evolution of environmental management strategies from endofpipe control to lifecycle based sustainability. A free open source software, for modelling and assessing life cycle assessment, with various import and export options. Uncertainty calculation in life cycle assessments springerlink. Understanding uncertainties in lca results is therefore important for making informed decisions. Life cycle assessment is a methodological framework defined in the din iso 1404044 to assess environmental impacts associated with all the stages of a products life from raw material extraction through materials processing, manufacture, distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and disposal or recycling. Life cycle assessment is an analytical technique for assessing potential environmental, social, and economic burdens and impacts of a given product or process, encompass ing all stages of life cycle, from raw material production through endof life management. Life cycle assessment lca is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product.
Uncertainty calculation in life cycle assessments request pdf. It is important to know to what extent the outcome of an lca is affected by various types ofuncertainty, such as parameter, scenario and model uncertainty. Finally, i addressed the model uncertainty by using different life cycle inventory assessment lcia methods incorporated in the matrixbased models. Earthshift global is a womanowned business, led by lise laurin, ceo and founder of earthshift. In order to facilitate the identification of uncertainty, its. Environmental life cycle assessment lca has developed fast over the last three decades. The objective is to provide an overview of the methods to identify, characterize, propagate uncertainty analysis, understand the effects sensitivity. However, the large amount of uncertainty characteristic of lca. It allows custom roadway design, or users can draw from a library of over 50 existing canadian. The uncertainty analysis intends to characterize and compare relative roles of unreliability, incompleteness, technological difference, and spatial and temporal variation in life cycle impact. Furthermore, uncertainty literature in lca has focused on life cycle inventory lci, while the uncertainties from the remaining stepsincluding characterization. Framework for modeling data uncertainty in life cycle.
You are always looking for the best ways to analyse the hotspots and opportunities in the life cycles of your products and company, and for the most accurate, transparent results. Methodology with case study zongzhi li1 and sunil madanu2 abstract. Whitepaper uncertainty in life cycle inventory data thinkstep. Incorporating uncertainty in the life cycle assessment of biodiesel from waste cooking oil addressing different collection systems. The characterisation step in lcia pre sustainability. Many projects utilize software or practitioners who perform these analyses. Eight principles of uncertainty for lca of biofuel systems 247 essential for characterizing the thermodynamic efficiency of the life cycle e. The advantages of impact assessment and life cycle assessment lca have been highly documented based on the amount of published academia in the recent years. We have developed the pedigree tool to estimate data uncertainty from data quality. Lca can effectively avoid problem shifting during different processes he. Lca is becoming a common tool used in the measurement and evaluation of environmental per formance.
The calculation of uncertainty in life cycle assessment lca has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of available uncertainty data. Both concepts became mainstream, with applications in policy and industry, large and small enterprises, academia and. Environmental life cycle assessment of goods and services. As part of the study, we performed a parameter uncertainty analysis for multiple scenarios to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in input data on the relative performance of products. Uncertainty, sensitivity and data quality assessment for life cycle value assessment lcva 980479 life cycle value assessment lcva is a decision making tool which considers environmental, economic andor social aspects for the entire life cycle of a product or process from cradletograve. It is observed that life cycle ped of e100 changes from 0.
The life cycle system boundary was defined as cradle to grave, covering the stages from extraction or acquisition of raw materials up to the end. Pavement lca overview life cycle assessment software. Some practical considerations finalize the knowledge area. Pdf analysis and comparison of life cycle assessment and. An inventory analysis provides information on all relevant energy and material inputs, and on the emission of toxic and nontoxic pollutants, but that alone does not provide enough information to guide decisionmaking.
In order to perform monte carlo simulation, input parameters e. Based on a life cycle assessment lca, this paper assesses the uncertainty of energy efficiency and environmental performance in the development of cassava ethanol of 1. Fast and reliable calculation of your sustainability assessment andor life cycle assessment. Working with openlca alessandria, italy registration open use of openlca for life cycle assessment, social lca and environmental footprint in the context of the circular economy. How to treat uncertainties in life cycle assessment. Students learned all the steps in the life cycle analysis to quantify environmental impacts and products, and how to apply it to make sustainable. Life cycle inventory lci analysis is a methodology for estimating the consumption of resources, the quantities of waste flows and emissions caused by, or otherwise attributable to, a products life cycle rebitzer et al.
Mathematical basics of lca the strength of lca is that it does not only consider direct emissions induced by a final demand of a product, but also up and downstream emissions from the supply and disposal chains of that product. The results of the inventory analysis and impact assessment are summarized during the interpretation phase. Uncertainty in life cycle assessment is usually related to measurement errors determination of the relevant data, e. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in life cycle assessment. Uncertainty, sensitivity and data quality assessment for. A life cycle assessment is the systematic analysis of the environmental impact of products during. The use of life cycle assessment lca as a decision support tool can be hampered by the numerous uncertainties embedded in the calculation. Life cycle analysis lca applied to buildings aims to assess the potential environmental of buildings over the complete life cycle, from materials production to the endof life and management of waste disposal. Sustainability consulting, life cycle assessment software. Performing an lcca greatly increases the likelihood of choosing a project that saves money in the long run.
Whereas lca developed from merely energy analysis to a comprehensive environmental burden analysis in the 1970s, fullfledged life cycle impact assessment and life cycle costing models were introduced in the 1980s and 1990s, and sociallca and particularly consequential lca gained ground in the first. Highway project level lifecycle benefitcost analysis. Customers increasingly request information on the environmental or c0 2 footprint of the products and services they buy. Uncertainty quantification in life cycle assessments. Dec 09, 2011 get the basics of life cycle assessment in this 6 minute crash course provided by award winning sustainability expert leyla acaroglu from eco innovators. Life cycle assessment lca is intended as a quantitative decision support tool.
The most common method of parameter uncertainty propagation to the impact scores is monte carlo simulation, which remains a resource. Life cycle assessment lca aims to support decisionmaking by quantifying the environmental performance of a product throughout its life cycle. Uncertainty assessment in life cycle cost analysis decisions about buildingrelated investments typically involve a great deal of uncertainty about their costs and potential savings. One of the key steps in the highway investment decisionmaking process is to conduct project evaluation. Comparing sources and analysis of uncertainty in consequential. Lca were initially developed for the analysis of simple products, i. Key issue analysis decompose uncertainty of result into. A basic framework for life cycle assessment lca calculation and two plugins will be implemented, a format converter and an uncertainty module. The table shown below was built from information available at the ihobe 23 and building ecology webpages 24. Eight principles of uncertainty for life cycle assessment of. Tools for life cycle assessment we provide guidance on how to perform life cycle assessment consistent with scientific standards and technical guidelines and also contribute to the development of tools and lca software for the lca practitioner.
Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity. This software and approach to life cycle uncertainty quantification has previously been effectively employed in many environmental lca studies basset. Analytical propagation of uncertainty in life cycle. Use monte carlo uncertainty analyses to measure data uncertainty. In north america, the athena impact estimator for buildings is the only free software tool that is designed to evaluate whole buildings and assemblies based on internationally recognized life cycle assessment lca methodology. Uncertainty can occur in each phase and is often not. Athena pavement lca web the pavement lca web app is web application that provides environmental lca and life cycle cost analysis lcca results for canadian and select us regional materials manufacturing, roadway construction and maintenance life cycle stages. The propagation of probabilistic and possibilistic. How to treat uncertainties in life cycle assessment studies. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in life cycle assessment using the bayesian monte carlo method shihchi lo, hwongwen ma, shanglien lo graduate institute of environmental engineering, national taiwan university, 71 choushan rd. Our educational programs provide knowledge on life cycle analysis, interpreting results, assessment methods, handling recycling, online software training for earthsmart and packagesmart, impacts, package design sustainability, or environmental consulting and much more. To guarantee grain security, china is developing nongrain fuel ethanol.
This recent approach towards tracking the environmental impact of a specific product or process has been manipulated to better suit each and every need. Key issue analysis decompose uncertainty of result into contributions by uncertainties in input data analytical or sampling with regression 57. The results and its sensitivity to uncertainty factors are evaluated. This white paper addresses thinksteps recommendations for addressing the quantification of uncertainty in an lca study, and how this can be done practically and with reasonable accuracy. The results of scenario uncertainty estimation in the us lci database show that on average, the total carbon dioxide emissions across all processes are between 30% to 30%. It provides useful information to assess the reliability of lcabased decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Mar 30, 2018 this software and approach to life cycle uncertainty quantification has previously been effectively employed in many environmental lca studies basset. Uncertainty characterization in life cycle assessment. It then provides a life cycle perspective, highlights risk and uncertainty management, and shows how economic analysis methods are used. Quantitative approaches for decisions that matter 9 references hendrickson, chris t. An integrated approach for the consideration of uncertainty in decision making supported by life cycle assessment. Life cycle assessment is a methodological framework defined in the din iso 1404044 to assess environmental impacts associated with all the stages of a products life from raw material extraction through materials processing, manufacture, distribution. Uncertainty analysis in lca concepts, tools, and practice reinout heijungs. Uncertainty analysis is an important aspect in lca, and is.
Life cycle sustainability assessment integrates the information from lca, life cycle costing and social life cycle assessment in the decision making process. Information on the uncertaintyof the model outcomes provides useful information to assess the reliability of lcabased. The results of such studies are then used to make decisions or justify decisions. Simapro is the worlds leading lca software because it offers exactly the features you. Uncertainty is commonly not taken into account in lca studies, which. Breakdown of topics for software engineering models and methods.
Life cycle assessments the main thing you need in lca software is excellent performance in doing lcas. The treatment of uncertainty is necessary to increase the reliability and credibility of lca results. Essentials of environmental life cycle assessment aiche. Life cycle assessment lca is a widely used method to evaluate the energy efficiency and environmental impact of products, services, and processes in all or part stages from cradle to grave zabed et al. Life cycle assessment a productoriented method for. The environmental footprint, calculated with life cycle analysis lca, is internationally accepted as the scientific standard to measure the environmental performance of products, from cradletograve.
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